President Lungu 59 narrowly defeated Hichilema, 53, in the January 2015 presidential by-election which took place as the result of the death of president Michael Sata MHSRIP.Lungu obtained 48.3% of the 1,671,662 total votes cast, ahead of Hichilema who polled 46.7% and the nine other opposition leaders shared the remaining 5%. Which means the battle was between PF and UPND, which will not change even in 2016.
From the ten provinces of Zambia, Lungu won six, Eastern, his home area and five provinces which Sata drew most of his support from, Lusaka, the capital; Copperbelt; and three Bemba-speaking provinces which are; Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces. While HH commanded the Southern province, where he comes from,and the neighbouring Western, North-Western and Central provinces.
The national voter turnout was the lowest recorded for a presidential election in the history of Zambia which was at 32%.
We can not run away from the fact that in 2015 poll voter turnout, was higher in UPND than PF strongholds. If both trends are repeated in 2016, President Lungu, will lose with a landslide.
Generally, voter turnout during By-Elections is far lower than during scheduled Presidential and Parliamentary elections. Following history, the 2006 Presidential election, the voter turn out was high, compared to that of October 2008 By-election.
However the 2016 General Election will see a lot of changes adding to it that even Members of parliament will also be Campaigning for their Party Presidents.
I see a lot of members of parliament defecting to the largest opposition UPND, especially from MMD and even from the ruling Party which see the downfall of PF.
Time is limited for both candidates especially for president Lungu who is under pressure having presided over a deteriorating economy affected by falling copper prices globally, loadshadding that has badly affected production,high prices of commodities especially food and farming inputs which will see low harvest for 2015/2016 farming season, a 60% depreciation of the Kwacha against major currencies US $ for example since January, an increase in inflation (from 7% in January to 19.5% in November), and a budget deficit of 8% of GDP (relative to the 4.6% originally projected in the 2015 budget).
All these factors have have given the UPND a greater chance to form government next year.
By Tobious Hamukowa
@mj banda !! Niwebo weulecita tribalism chikala.. why do you always accuse innocent people of being tribal chikala iwe? Where has the author of this article gone tribal? Bring real issues here not ifyamumatako chikala atase!! You think edgar lungu can win any genuine election in this country? Edgar can only win by rigging using violance and intimidation of opponents the way we are seeing it already .Nga wamonafyeshina chikala iwe ninshi kutotonkanya pali tribalism? itole kwati ni lungu chikala..Just wait bafikala . Lungu thinks he can cheat and play casino or gambling with God the way he used to do with his fellow drunkards in chawama.
Bushe imwe bata ba MJ Banda, do you sleep or you spend all your day and night hours on the computer ? It’ s like you are too obsessed with Lungunomics or the Chikwandanomics which have completely ruined this country.
This Tobious is really a tribalist, why mention tribe of bemoans speaking meanwhile forgetting to mentor mention Tonga province. And please don’t say who will go to state house when there’s someone already but just say who will win period.