By Sopo Nsipa
Ba PF make sure EL wins at the conference otherwise with any other candidate, it will be a walk over for HH! But whether with Edgar or not, PF died with Sata! No man leaves his shadow behind!
Here is how HH will win so easily with whoever you field in!
*the Conference is suicidal for PF regardless of the outcome! Do u think those cadres who were beaten yesterday will vote for PF? A lot of people who will not be satisfied with the GC outcome will not vote for PF! That’s just a fact!
But a little leave from that, the fact is whoever will stand on your ticket will not get the 42% Sata got! U can argue, but here is how that 42% was made:
-unhappy civil servants- insecurity and wage freeze.
-unhappy students-police brutality and PF’s unconcernedness with the general education policy!
-Unhappy farmers- reduced farming inputs assistance, delayed payments for their products supplied to Maize to FRA, others generally unhappy with the PF agriculture policy!
-Unhappy Lozis who were brutalized by police under Sata, some even killed, arrested and tortured under the PF regime!
-sorry in this 42%, there are unemployed youths, graduates, school leavers who hoped to be employed under PF, but none was employed! They have been affected by the continued unemployment freeze proposed by Chikwanda in parley! Don’t tell me all these will vote for PF and its continuity message!
-in the 42%, there are learned people who wanted a new constitution in 90 days, but have been disappointed
-in 42%, there are bus drivers affected by the removal of subsidies!
-in the 42%, there are parents struggling to pay school fees for their children and hoped PF would be a saviour, but alas, the burden has increased with PF!
-you will not have it easy becoz in the 42%, there Mindolo residents whose houses were destroyed by the PF govt thru a council run by PF! Do you think they vote for continuity?
-In the 42% Sata pulled, there are those who generally thought prices will go down under PF! But alas, prices have gone up high and many can’t afford to sustain their families!
-You will not have it easy because in the 42% the late wooed, there are Kampasa residents and their sympathizers whose people your govt brutally murdered on cold blood! Sorry ur failures will cost u this time around!
*So your presidential candidate can not fit into Sata’s shoes! Beside, there are those who have convinced that PF is a failed project Zambia has ever embarked upon!
*not all these will go to UPND, but the fact is UPND will benefit more!
Let’s say, for argument’s sake, with the above, the UPND gains by 10% but PF loses by 15%! So u stand on 32% while UPND narrows the gap to 28%!
———————————————*The other fact is that the party that came number 2 MMD is divided and dead! The truth is MMD and UPND votes added together were more than what Sata got! From its fall, UPND has gained more votes! We have seen defections from both PF and MMD to UPND! Just yesterday, some MMD MPs endorsed HH and promised to be Campaign managers for HH in their constituencies! Do u know what that means??? Additionally, there are those MMD constituencies which your party has persecuted, they don’t have MPs for the past 3 yrs! Do you think ur continuity message will sell in these areas??? Besides, MMD is likely to divide into two and one half will file in! Will their supporters go to PF??? Let’s say UPND gains by 5% and go back to our figures, PF at 32% and UPND at 28%+5%=33%! PF beaten!
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Let’s go back to the drama going on in PF! This drama will cost PF heavily! The convention can either got the cartel way or the EL way! If the cartel way, I don’t need to explain coz I’m sure even u can’t vote for it! But if the EL way, here is the thing: it will cost PF about 5% or more! The already divided Copperbelt, LSK and other places like Kasama whose MPs contested will be divided! Do you think the PF lost votes will go to Narep, FDD or MMD! Let’s say they split, 2% to UPND, and others share 1% each! Add the 2% to the 33% of UPND=35% and reduce by 5% from PF’s 32=27%.
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This is how PF is going to lose to UPND regardless of the convention outcome!
Disclaimer: The analysis below represents the views of the author and do not in anyway represent the position of this publication or its editors.
Contrarian view, it will be RB who will scoop the seat. Watch out armchairs analysts. Too near to Church too far from God!
Good try Lo. But Sopo Nsipa’s analysis makes more LOGICAL sense. Please continue blogging because these postings help us to gauge the intellect/caliber of bloggers.
We have since created a data base for this purpose which is aimed at establishing Zambia’s general reasoning levels as a research finding for future use.
Now you are talking. No more insulting and we will learn a lot from intellectuals.
We leave in the world of assumptions,imaginations & wishes.the above analysis is not a fact but an imagination,its not wrong to imagine bcoz ideas are generated from such.Nw look at this,defections of pf cadres in southern province to upnd does not give headache.pf had recevd more defections frm other parties such as mmd since 2011.the assumed disappointed cadres in copperbelt & Lusaka are insignificant to affect popularity of pf.if Edgar goes through pf will retain power at state house because he has national character support.many mps even from upnd & mmd support him.upnd can’t penetrate luapula,northern,muchinga & eastern,mmd is dead even in eastern especially if Edgar is pf candidate.lusaka & copperbelt including central pf support will be 80%.remember upnd has 3 sure provinces southern,western & northwestern & every vote count.votes going to mmd,unip,heritage,narep wil disadvantage upnd.this is what kept mmd in power long time.if GBM,sampa,simuusa will not support Edgar,the impact is minimal because they don’t hav national character support.coming to upnd Nalumango haz no constiuency,Dr Banda has no constituency in vubwi. so statistically Pf will be in firts position,upnd second & mmd 3rd because of apathy it u be 40 % pf 32% upnd 15% mmd,unip,narep,hp,cdp,ludwig party 13%.if u add all opposition we get 60%.Pf advantage is the use of 2011 voters register & most of university & other youths are not registered
Some people may EXCITE THEMSELVES in their preferred terms of biased analysis but this makes more sense because of the mistakes and OMISSIONS on the pf part which even the outside world has been following. The WRONGS were actually accepted by the pf top-bras in Parliament when they told the Zambian people that the majority of their promises were MERELY CAMPAIGN GIMMICKS. The 4 MAJOR lies included Windfall tax, Constitution making, Subsidy removal which only benefited political maneuvers and politicians’ emoluments/salaries, and the Wynter/Sata $500 million oil saga. So the analysis is speaking for Zambians.
THE OUTCOME WILL BE JUST LIKE THAT.EITHER THE LIKE IT OR NOT.IT IS TIME FOR CHANGE AND THIS IS GODS TIME ,NO ARGUMENTS PERIOD.
Biased analysis, wen doing your analysis make sure you remove your party tags, from this you have just mentioned the wrongs that pf did which has also helped them win new support….when you’re campaigning for hh just say that no one will stop you dont speak for Zambians.
E Lungu said pf is sata and sata is pf.thus pf died with sata and. Is burried
Excellent observation. I agree HH is winning these elections with a wide margin
You are the best analyst I have ever red in my life. Shame the PF devils of Panga Family. Sopo Nsipa now kindly help us how we are going to stop OP with Chungu and Emmanuel Mwamba not to rig our elections on 20 th January,2015. VIVA HH-PLOT ONE 2015-ZAMBIA UNITED.