By Patrick Sikana
What will be the deciding factor for an HH win in this year’s elections? Will it be the free fall of the Kwacha? The economy in tatters? The incessant power cuts? The sky-rocketing prices? The policy chaos erupting from the Lungu experiment? The state-condoned violence and police brutality? Or will it be the dismal performance of the incumbent regime on democracy? None of these, I would argue.
Have you ever walked into a stuffy room and wondered how people were managing to breathe? That’s how I feel each time I arrive back home, in Zambia. But that feeling is always less than temporary. By the second day I have adjusted to the power cuts, I know where to get a good bargain for charcoal, I know the price of bread and I can predict, with military precision, when the next joke from State House will hit the media. Zambians know how to adjust to the circus. So an economy in shambles won’t sell in this election.
You can crunch the numbers all you want, glamourize the Copperbelt and Lusaka votes with all the energy you can spare, insult the PF until the last lung pops out, or whine about the economy. That pig won’t fly. It boils down to 3 things: to form the next government, HH will need 1) more of the illusive northern vote (Luapula, Northern, Muchinga), 2) the right alliances before and after a possible run-off, and, 3) uncompromisable vigilance to guard the vote. That’s where our energy must go. Our strategy must coalesce around these three: Keep the vote we already have, endear the north to gain the difficult vote we don’t have and guard them both with an eagle’s eye.
Even this year haleya halenya.
I think ECL is winning because he does not need all this headache of calculations. Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Copperbelt, Eastern,Lusaka, Central, Some parts of North Western and Western will go to Lungu. Pressure is on HH.
You are ‘too’ humble ‘The observer’, it isn’t necessary. HH missed State House with a mere 27,000 votes in January, the highest ever since he started his presidential bid. Without any campaign, he can easily get 30,000 from any of his provincial strongholds. If he told the Tongas to give him 30,000 more than the 300,000 they gave him in January out of the then 600,000 registered voters, he could easily get 100,000 or more.
I entirely agree with you he needs probably 50% in Lusaka and 30% on the Copperbelt. These were impossible in January. One thing we did not mention besides tribe was Sata’s death. The January vote was settled on the basis of Sata’s death. This is what made Lungu ascend to PF power – that he was ‘left’ with Sata’s file. It is debatable but most of the PF voters voted him on this basis. There is no Sata’s death now. Instead, there is erratic power power supply which means erratic water supply in all Urban areas. Mines have cut jobs on the Copperbelt of people that were in employment in January, add extended families to this. Talk about the constitution, how many of those that attended the signing today know anything about it? Most went there because they were taken and to eat and drink.
Others before us are right on roads a plus for PF but the nature of these projects is that they don’t easily translate into personal benefits for voters. i have two houses on the outskirts of Lusaka and in both cases, the roads have not been tarred. Rather, there are graders and trucks packed on both the two roads for the past two years. Do you wonder who I will vote for?
Let me tell you the catch: HH will have to find a way to campaign. He must find a way to mobilise the dismissed miners and their families to vote for him with tangible plans their situation will change. I know he will complain about unfair Public Order Act and is is a fair complaint. But if you look at the Arab Spring, they did not take to the road. They campaigned through social media and it was more effective than road campaigns. HH must move the miners. He must convince Lusakanssa that he can sort out the power crisis and now address the looming hunger next year due to drought. I think this is the catch. He most certainly doesn’t need to get more than he got in Luapula, Northern and Mchinga because they won’t give him more than they did. But for political reasons, of course, he needs to hang around there not really to get more votes. Rather, he can get 300, 000 effortlessly from his provincial strongholds in rural Copperbelt, Central, Lusaka, Southern, Western and North Western. He just must work on the ‘urbans’. ‘The observer’, you are right to be humble!
According to my humble analysis; HH has to get at least 45 percent in lusaka. 30 percent in copperbelt, muchinga,luapula, northern and 40 Percent in eastern. And atleast 7o percent in southern, western,north-western and central. Then he should home and dry.
Yes, the winner will be decided by Lusaka and Copperbelt urban which this time gives an edge to UPND. Power crisis wasn’t there in January but it is a major factor today in all urban. The Constitution is a plus for PF but the way it was done alienated civil society which should have been the vote had it being done properly. Others don’t understand the constitution especially because PF kept saying you don’t eat a constitution. However, UPND must campaign flat out even if it means all of them being killed in the process. They must not take it for granted but go out and offer credible alternatives. They could get it but with sweat because they are not in office.
I totally agree with you Patrick Sikana my Big Bro. Economic hardships are being felt by all Zambians and people right now are fully aware that the PF Govt has failed us big time. However, it’s the mindset of the people in that part of the country that must be carefully lobbyed out into positive change. Whether we like it or not, people have been hoodwinked for many years that they can only support those who hail from their regions. Brilliance and Skill for many years have not been anything one can talk about when it comes to African Politics, moreespecially here in Zambia. When the mindset Changes that anyone from any place in Zambia provided they have what it takes can be president,this country will experience meaningful development
ECONOMIC HARDSHIPS BRING TRIBALISM CRAWLING OUT OF THE WOODWORK
Zambia’s biggest challenge is to turn the economic around so as to attract meaningful investment that will create decent jobs and assist in alleviating poverty. The tribalism aimed especially at the Tonga speaking people epitomises the continuing deterioration of the Zambian economy and the suffering faced by the majority in the country. If Zambians who know our past history of ONE ZAMBIA, ONE NATION habour such intolerance for other tribes, then our work to build a prosperous and peaceful Zambia is going to be hard to realise under the present economic conditions. Zambians must learn to and have the ability to look beyond their pain brought about the PF government if things have to change for the better. Tribalism is exactly the tool the PF government want to use to divide otherwise peace loving Zambians. However, Zambians continue to share a smile amid their dire economic conditions, which are getting harder every day. One thing Zambians cant continue is to have faith in the PF government which deters the mission to build a better Zambia for our children. Yes a better Zambia free of all social and economic ills including tribalism.
We should continue to expose corruption and poor governance which are ravaging our country.
Shallow analysis…what is it that will sway the elusive vote??
bigthroat that is exactly my feeling also. These elections will be determined by how well or bad each candidate performs in Lusaka and Copperbelt.
I disagree. All HH needs is to win either Lusaka or Copperbelt urbun votes. Forget about Luapula, Muchinga and Northern. These people are just as tribal as the Tongas. Southern, NorthWestern, Western and Central will naturally go to HH. Lusaka rural and Copperbelt rural is already for HH. Northern, Luapula, Muchinga and Eastern is for EL. Battle groud i repeat is Copperbelt and Lusaka urban.
Just wait for the date of Elections, and people vote, even at school any person can say i will be a DOCTOR but when the exam come, its different. HH AND UPND dont be so over wining remember what VJ said, SOUTHERN AND N/WESTERN PROVINCES are not only zambia, this country is too big and not even GBM can influence any one in zambia voting UPND. Wait for elections and results. we shall see the winners. SO I HAVE NOW STOPPED READING THIS USELESS PAPER AS IT BELONG TO HH AND UPND,IT SHOULD WRITE FOR EVERY ZAMBIANS NOT TO FAVOUR HH AND TONGAS
Zambia eye you are all idiots this paper is HH AND UPND who told you that HH is winning ? just wait after 14.08.2016, UPND will finish like ZURI SAOP.
Tongas you expect vote from zambians yet on other hand you insult the pipo you expect to vote you under 5 HH at most zambia illitrate dont under understand they economy. look zambia are intreasted to vote a president who can relate with them in a kombonic way. But upnd full of pride and arongance forget about win elections.
Your thinking is nauseating and outdated. Come up with something new. You sound like an old broken LP record.
You are spot on, most Zambian illiterate voters don’t understand the
implication of the following;
> Running down the economy.
> Load shedding.
> Depreciation of the Kwacha
> Abusing the Public Order Act.
> Sky rocketing prices
Their vote will go to one who give them K50 or a packet of shake shake.
a nice & true analysis but most likely to fall on deaf ears. upnd don’t need to form an alliance, are winning by 70%. this is what they say.