HH and UPND leaders at a rally in Solwezi during a by-election
By Isaac Malambo Libando
Whatever you may call it, be it lucky, opportunism, blessed or fortunate, Hakainde is the luckiest or the black sheep amongst the presidential aspirant Zambia has ever had, the reason is simple he has contested two emergency presidential elections (2008 and 2015) and two general elections (2006 and 2011).
Sympathizers and PF cadres are disgusted with the caption above, as things stand, it is apparent that Hakainde Hichilema goes to these polls with his 18.54% votes he got in 2011 elections. To justify the point let the readers know that we shall use the same voters register for 2011, Voters have changed policy mind, while others have shifted to different towns and won’t be able to vote, and thus others have departed this life. These elections will be dynamic litmus test for Patriotic Front and UPND.
During the 2011 general elections, western, eastern, central and north western provinces were in the hands of Rupiah Banda with 33.76%, 74.28%, and 48.95% and 51.33% respectively, Hakainde come out third in central, eastern provinces, and second in western and north western provinces, he scoped 21.14%, 3.40%, 21.14% and 36.03% correspondingly.
Western province gave our late president Sata a trailing 23%, with the misunderstanding and mistrust that was portrayed with the Sata led government, it is obvious that western Province will be dented with voter apathy and votes of protest, if Hakainde can play his cards well he is most likely to come out as a front runner in western province and some provinces that he came out Second or third in the last ELECTION.
Many political commentators will argue, but to make a simple analysis, Hakainde needs at least 23% of new votes to win this presidency; this simply means he comes with an upper hand of his 2011 voters strength and a alliance of sympathizers.
Amongst the top contestant of 2011 he is the prominent name that still echoes the ballot paper with the demise of President Sata and the retirement or resurrection of Rupiah Banda as a political front, HH is a default top most contender and PF will be playing for sympathy votes and continuity this is attainable depending on who they choose and how they choose him, that is another story for another day. This 23% is realistic if clings the votes of Western, North Western, Central and Southern as for Lusaka and Copperbelt he needs a lion’s share too.The Patriotic Front will play a pivotal role on the fate HH, the battle of succession in PF is so intense, we wait to see how democratic it will be, The first family has filled in four candidates as presidential aspirants, if they choose their leader and with the exclusion of Edgar Lungu on the list, then Eastern Province will be up for grabs, but if it happens the other way round, then Eastern will be for PF or RB no matter what. With the emergence of RB we wait to see how easterners shall react.
Deliberately I have not touched the provinces like Northern, Luapula and Southern provinces, these are provinces that were or are strongholds for PF and UPND, now what will be interesting is how PF will choose a leader, who is that Leader? Can he fit in the shoes of the late President Michael Sata?
NOTE: The author is an Independent writer who is also open to comment and make reviews on various topics / events.