Why PF Will Win 2021 Polls

Lungu addressing rally at Mulambwa Ground in Mongu. Photos by Eddie Mwanaleza

By Justin Mupundu

The South African political analyst and journalist Nicole Beardworth’s 2021 polls analysis, which was first published in South Africa’s Mail &Guardian newspapers and quoted by a local Tabloid (National Mirror), speculates that the governing Patriotic Front (PF) may use the military to rig polls given the  2019 National Budget’s increased defence budget allocation. Interestingly, United Party for National Development (UPND) Mazabuka Central Member of Parliament (MP) Gary Nkombo raised a similar issue in Parliament.

Beardworth’s analysis is 100 percent based on UPND’s lies about 2019 National Budget, the country’s debt and corruption allegations.  He’s not privy to the facts about elections in Zambia. In short, it’s a fake analysis!

How would the military be used to rig elections? Is it by taking over the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ)’s electronic election results -transmission system? Or is by imposing PF’s election victory against the voters’ will?

First and foremost, ECZ has since 1968 conducted eight transparent, free and fair elections: None of these elections were marred with vote-rigging or manipulated in favour of either the governing or opposition political party.

Whilst ECZ have conducted polls marred with a pocket of irregularities, the magnitude of the said irregularities do not compromise the outcome of any these elections.

Secondly, the PF scooped the polls in 2011, 2015 and 2016, and will again win in 2021 based on its popularity, and the confidence Zambians has in the party.

The PF’s earliest exist from power is 2031 or after 20 years: Zambians do not change Government as one would change a shirt or skirt as Beardworth supposes. But they will assess the PF after governing for ten years or two five-year terms.

However, even with the tumbling living standards and rising cost of living, it’s most likely Zambians will renew their social contract with PF in 2021; Or the governing party will secure another five-year mandate to govern the country.

HH arrives in Kasempa

As for UPND’s Hakainde Hichilema’s disputed election claims, he used it to canvass his supporters’ sympathy for his bid as a party‘s presumptive 2021 presidential candidate nominee.

A presidential candidate’s popularity gauge is based on the political party’s strongholds. For example, President Edgar Lungu won the 2016 elections in seven out of ten Provinces. Six out of the seven Provinces are PF’s strongholds: Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, Copperbelt, Lusaka and Eastern Provinces.

However, Hichilema won in four out of ten Provinces, which are UPND’s strongholds: Southern, Northwestern, Western and Central Provinces.

In my post-election analysis I wrote that: “The voting pattern in Northern, Muchinga, Luapula and Copperbelt Provinces influence Zambia’s political landscape: Every presidential candidate has either won or lost the presidency in these four Provinces.”

Indeed, Lungu scooped the presidency in these four Provinces, in addition to Eastern, Lusaka and Central Provinces.

However, Hichilema lost the presidency from these four provinces, which are the PF strongholds.

Further, one scoops the presidency, as indicated in the pre-election analysis, based on the voting pattern, voter turnout and the number of parliamentary seats the party-sponsored candidates win.

The PF still enjoys massive support in their strongholds, and the voting pattern will unlikely change in 2021 in favour of Hichilema.The recently held by- elections, in which PF scooped about 99 percent of the seats, confirms that the 2016 voting pattern is still intact, and that the voting pattern will be replicated 2021.

The PF, given the prevailing scenario, will most likely retain 100 percent of its 82 parliamentary seats, and wrestle over 20 seats from UPND’s strongholds.

However, the UPND‘s dwindling fortunes may see the biggest opposition in the country retain only about 60 percent of its 58 parliamentary seats in 2021, and lose the presidency to the incumbent President Lungu.

But, as usual, Hichilema will cry foul alleging that the polls were rigged to confirm their military elections rigging claims.

Election rigging claims is fake news used by the enemies of peace to sow seed of discontent among Zambians, throw mud on the country’s electoral body and declare polls as a sham.

The UPND has never conceded defeat in the six consecutive elections held since 2001 when its founder, late Anderson Mazoka, lost the presidency to the late Levy Patrick Mwanawasa. Hichilema lost the remaining five elections to late Mwanawasa, Rupiah Banda, late Michael Sata and Edgar Lungu in   2006,2008,2011,2015 and 2016, respectively.

The men and women in uniforms have never been involved in elections. The ECZ uses Zambia Air Force helicopter to ferry election materials to and from far-flung areas that have impassable roads. However, all stakeholders are privy to this fact.

So, PF will win the 2021 elections based on its popularity and high performance rating, and not rigging.

Note: This is a pre-election preliminary analysis, and detailed analysis, if God wills, will be published seven days before August 11, 2021.

The author is a political analyst and media consultant