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Who wins the January 20 Presidential election?

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Map voter registerWith just over a month to go before the January 20th Presidential Bye-election some analysis of the 2011 results needs to be undertaken, more so tht we shall be using the same voter’s register, writes Peter Kasengele.

So out of the 5.1 million registered voters only 2.7 million turned out to vote in the 2011 general elections; How many will vote this time? Will they still vote the same way thy did in 2011 ? Who stands a better chance?

To start with the voter turn out in 2011 was recorded at 53% by the official ECZ stats (and that was a general election), we should therefore brace ourselves for a much more reduced turn out of btwn 40-45% this time around (it shall be in the rainy season, people will be busy farming , lack of information about the elections, general apathy etc).

That said it therefore means that we expect the total turn out to be around 2 million even less. A look at the 2011 poll shows that PF under Michael Sata won by about 1.1 million votes from the total votes cast they convincingly won in four provinces namely, Lusaka  Copperbelt , Northern (which then incorporated Muchinga) and Laupula, ( Lusaka, Copperbelt and Northern being number 2, 1 and 3 in terms of voting power respectively), and they emerged a respectable second in Central Province (which stands at number 6) , a distant second in Eastern Province ( which stands at number 4) and third in North Western , Southern and Western (which stand at numbers 9, 5 and 8 respectively).

The MMD under Rupiah Banda , polled 980 from the total votes cast, posting convincing wins in Eastern only and just winning (not overwhelmingly) in Central , Western and North Western . . .in the other provinces they emerged second.

The UPND under Hakainde Hichilema, polled 500, winning convincingly only in Southern Province , emerging second in North Western and Western and third in the rest of the provinces.

Who then stands in pole postion? The MMD are back arguably with the same candidate RB . . . will he turn his fortunes and get atleast 3 of the top 5 voting blocks ??? Considering he only had one in 2011 . . .with the intra-party squabbles and a general misgivings about electing an old (over 70 ) President I think the odds are not in his favour. ( Note that the article was writen before Nevers Mumba was declared as the MMD presidential candidate by the Supreme Court)

The UPND are back with HH, can they win more than one Province this time around? I think they can, with North Western and Western being realistic provincial picks. Will those numbers however turn there fortunes? I do not think so, and as such they need to fish big time in the deep ponds of Lusaka, Copperbelt or Northern to stand a realistic chance of winning.

PF are in with Edgar Lungu . . .they have a mamoth task ahead of them as their intra-party fights and the absence of their charismatic founder MCS will be a great challenge. Can they make a clean sweep of 3 of the top 5 again? I would put my neck on the chopping board and yes . . . I doubt that the opposition has during the last 3 years done enough to sway the votes away from PF. I should however hasten to mention that the margins might be reduced, but I don’t see PF even under EL losing in Lusaka, Copperbelt and Northern . The other advantage is that they have a large presence of MPs in thr strongholds and therefore campaigns and party mobilization shall be easier for them compared to parties that have no presence whatsoever (remember this is a bye- election with very little time to canavass for votes).

From the foregoing it is clear to tell that this will be a very difficult election for the top 3 parties (MMD, UPND and PF, off course no party without MPs shd even imagine they can win this election) My advice to the various party strategist is to approach each province with a specific message and also focus their campaigns on the size of the particular area . . .viz-a-viz what votes are obtainable from the said province. . . with the voter turn out at approximately 2 million, I see the party that shall be the first to hit the 750 k mark winning this election.

(I am not a statistician so bear with me if my my statistics defy the rules of the “game”). May the best man win

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Start: 2019-07-01 End: 2019-07-31