Who will form government after August 11?

By Justin Mupundu

Who of these nine contestants for presidency will form the next government after August 11?

Is itPeople’s Alliance for Change (PAC)’s President Andyford Banda? Or is it Democratic Assembly (DA)’s President Maxwell Mwamba? Or is it United Progressive Party’s President DrSaviourChishimba? Or is it Rainbow Party’s President WynterKabimba? Or is it Green Party’s President Peter Sikamba? Or is it United National Independence Party (UNIP)’s President Tilyenji Kaunda? Or is it Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD)’s President Edith Nawakwi? Or is it United Party for National Development (UPND)’s President Hakainde Hichilema? Or is it the ruling Patriotic Front (PF)’s President Edgar Lungu?

Four of these contestants are new faces and the rest have previously contested presidential elections.

PAC’s Banda, DA’s Mwamba, UPP’sDrChishimba, and Rainbow Party’s Kabimba are new faces.

The 2016 election will be held on August 11, a date the new constitution has set for holding general elections (after every five-year-term).

Another landmark is a 50+1 Clause or fifty percent and one vote of the vote election threshold of a President.

However, the 50+1threshold is only applicable in the first election and not a re-run: In the presidential election re-run, a candidate who garners majority votes of the vote scoops the presidency− almost a swap from the majoritarian to the past-post election system.

About 6.7 million out of Zambia’s 15 million populations are registered voters. The number of registered voters has increased from 5.2 million to 6.7 million, representing an increase of 1.5 million new voters that Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) captured.

Banda, a 35-year –old novice politician, and his counterpart, Mwanba, a 68-year-old politician, are out of the race.

Similarly, DrChishimba, ,a 42-year –old politician, who served as Kasama Member of Parliament, and a medical doctor by profession, may get less than 1 percent of the vote.

As for Kabimba‘s political stamina, a 58-year –old politician and lawyer, who also served as PF Secretary-General and Justice minister, cannot afford over 1 percent of the vote.

Sinkamba, a 52-year –old politician, who is contesting the presidency for a second time, is not one of the top contenders.

Kaunda, a 63-year-old politician ,and first Republican President ‘s son, is contesting the presidency for the sixth time, but with less than 1 percent of the votes he got in 2015 election is not one of the top contenders.

Nawakwi, a 56-year-old politician and the only female presidential candidate, is also out of the race with less than 1 percent of the votes she got in 2015 election.

Hichilema, a 53-year-old tycoon and politician, who was the UPND’s first president late Anderson Mazoka’s replacement, claims he’ll form government after August 11.

Hichilema’s campaign is based on promises to fix the Zambian economy, which in his view has been rundown.

Hichilema, who is also popularly known as HH, is contesting the presidency for the fifth time since 2006.

HH’s stronghold is Southern province. He also enjoys a pocket of support in North-western, Central and Western provinces.

HH got 25 percent of the vote in 2006, 20 percent in 2008, 18 percent in 2011 and 46 percent in 2015.

HH’s aggregate popularity rose by 21 percent in a period of ten years or 2 percent annually. HH needs an additional 5 percent of the vote to scoop the presidency. But is that achievable if his annual popularity growth rate is about 2 percent?

However, HH lost the 2015 election to Lungu with 27,757 votes margin or 1.66 percent. He polled 780,168 votes or 46 percent of the vote.

Lungu, a 59-year-old lawyer and politician, as the incumbent, is seeking re-election after being in office for barely 17 months.
Lungu scooped the presidency in 2015 after beating his closest rival, HH, with 807,925 votes or 48 percent of the vote.

Lungu’s re-election campaign, unlike HH, is not only based on his 17 months performance as Republican President, but also his party’s performance in the last five years since 2011.

Lungu’s tacit demonstration as Mr. ‘Walk –the -Talk’ is the massive infrastructure developmental projects he has initiated: The US$2.8 billion 600 MW Solar power project,Solar –powered milling plants( planned to be rolled out in all districts in the Zambia), enactment of the new constitution, roads, bridges, schools and health facilities being constructed in various districts throughout the country.

PF’s strongholds are Northern, Luapula, Muchinga, Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces. PF also enjoys massive support in Central, Western and North-western provinces. Now that the former President Banda is supporting Lungu, PF has added Eastern Province to its list of strongholds.

Clearly, HH and Lungu are in a two-horse race to State House. However, gauging the popularity or the chances of one scooping the presidency is critical.

The best barometer that gauges one’s popularity is the voting pattern, voter turnout, and parliamentary seats a political party presumes would scoop.

The voting pattern in Northern, Muchinga, Luapula and Copperbelt provinces influences Zambia’s political landscape: Every candidatehas either won or lost presidency in these four provinces.
The change in the voting pattern in these four provinces marks the ruling party’s exitfrom power. So far nothing points to the voting pattern’s likely change in the 2016 election. The voting pattern is a likely repeat of 2015 election.

In the 2015 election, the combined opposition, including MMD and UPNDgarnered 51percent of the vote against Lungu’s 48 percent.

So split -votes cost the opposition defeat in2015.But would the scenario be different with the nine presidential candidates in the contest?

While HH gained popularity by 2 percent annually, Lungualso gained popularity by 6 percent in the last one year.
It’s most likely that HH‘s popularity has gained an additional 2 percent in the last one year. This figure adds up with 46 percent he got last year to 48 percent of the vote, which is less than 50+1 threshold for winning the presidency.But if he lost popularity by seven parentage points, then he would get 39 percent of the vote.

But if President Lungu gained popularity by 6 percent in the last one year, then he would avert the run-off and scoop the presidency with 54 percent of the vote. However, if President Lungu lost popularity by seven percentage point, then he would garner 41 percent of the vote thus creating a run-off.

This means that HH, in the presidential election re-run, would still lose election with two percent margin of the vote.

The voter turnout affects voting pattern. In 2011, voter turnout was about 53 percent of the total 5.2 million registered voters.

The voter turnout increased from 42 percent in 2008 to 53 percent in 2011, representing 11 percent increase of the people who decided to vote. Out of these people, there emerged votes that handed the late Michael Sata victory.

But in 2015 the voter turnout tumbled from 53 percent to 32 percent, representing 21 percent decline of the people who voted in 2011. However, if the voter turnout increases to 52 percent or about 3.484 million voters cast their votes in 2016,then, there would emerge votes that will hand Lunguoutright victory.

Nevertheless, voters are in two categories: Loyal and undecided voters. Loyal voters rally behind a candidate regardless of the ticket on which one contests election. But undecided voters shun election for varies reasons, including dislike of a candidate or the ticket on which a candidate contests election.

TheSata’s loyal voters have fallen in love with his successor; Lungu.The paint -Lungu -black campaign will not change the voters’ minds.

But HH’s consolation is the undecided voters. Undecided voters, unlike loyal voters, are critical to an election victory: The one who convinces them to vote wins the presidency.

However,in Zambia’s representative democracy, a president is elected together with the majority Members of Parliament (MPs) with whom he forms Government.

More so,a political party that captures the majority parliamentary seats also garners the most presidential votes.

In a final analysis, a presidential contestant whose political party scoops the majority seats in a 156-Member Parliament wins election.

For example, the UPND’s founding leader, late Mazoka, who in 2001 election secured the minority 49 seats, lost the presidency to the late Levy Mwanawasa who had captured the majority 69 seats.

In 2006, Mwananwasa was re-elected with 74 majority MPs, and Sata scooped the minority 43 seats and HH got 22.

In 2008, Sata with the minority 43 MPs lost the presidency to Banda who had 74 MPs he inherited from the late Mwanawasa.
Similarly, in 2011, Mr Banda, who captured the minority 55 parliamentary seats, lost the presidency to Sata who scooped the majority 62 parliamentary seats.

And in the 2015 election, President Lungu who had the grip of 74 MPs defeated HH who had only 32 MPs.

It follows that Lungu, who is most likely to garner over two-thirds (about 110 MPs) in a 156-Member Parliament, will scoop the presidency.

This fact explains why the election rigging claims are false.

Lungu will be the second President,after the late President Frederick Chiluba who won election with over 134 MPs, to scoop election with over two-thirds majority seats in parliament.

But can HH, who is likely to capture less than 41 parliamentary seats, win the election?

The PF will retain all its 80 parliamentary seats and scoop 30 new ones, thus garners 110 majority seats. Equally opposition UPND will retain its 32 seats and gain 9 new additional seats to secure the minority 41 seats. The MMD will only manage to retain 4 seats, and FDD will as well retain its one seat.

It’s most unlikely that the voting pattern would not change in favour of HH; splitvotes, low voter turnout and the minority 41 MPs would also spoil HH’s chances of winning the election.

However, Lungu with 2015 voting pattern intact, the majority 110MPs or over two-thirds seats in a 156-Member Parliament, and PF government’s performance record, has very high chances of scooping the presidency.

Lungu, who is most likely to garner most votes in PF’ strongholds against HH’s split votes, willform government after August 11.

The author is a Lusaka-based freelance journalist and political analysis
Justin Mupundu © 2016