Point Blank: Winning elections in 2016 – Part 2

Patrick Sikana

By Patrick Sikana

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” Sun Tzu

This is not a prediction. It is suggestion. It is an extension of the argument I begun making a few weeks ago, namely, to win the 2016 elections in Zambia you need a selling message. I suggested 6 areas that offered a lot of potential for messaging.

In case you missed the first article, you can read it by clicking here.

In this article, however, I dwell on the strategy. Here is my six-point winning strategy. It is not fool proof, so take it for what it is – a suggestion at best.

1.      An early start. Elections cost time and money. You need these two resources to win an election. They are both not easy to come by. So start early and work hard. You’ve never won that particular election? You’re not well known in an area?  You don’t have a ton of money?  Does that mean you can’t win?  No!  It just means you’ve got to work hard.  Most first time candidates who win do so because they’re willing to work – they are willing to make calls all day, knock on doors all evening, then go home and write letters, craft position papers, draft press releases, and then wake up and do it all over again the next day.  They wake up at 4:30 in the morning and go to bed at midnight.  They do this day in and day out for months… or years.  They work hard.  You have to be willing to work this hard, too.

2.      The numbers. In the end this is what will count. Unlike in playing chess, where it is much more important to let those juicy-looking pieces go than to allow them to distract you from your main mission of building a strong presence at the centre of the board, in politics the more wards and constituencies you capture the merrier your victory. Numbers matter. In Zambia the winning formula is not Mapatizya or Chawama. It is L + C + 4 = Victory. You must aim at getting the majority in Lusaka and the Copperbelt and 4 other provinces. This is what will give you the magical number of 40 per cent of the votes cast – under the current constitution. It never gets any better (except during Chiluba’s time).

3.      The chameleon eyes.  Related to the point above is the need for your party to develop 360˚ vision. The greatest risk as we approach 2016 will be party members, especially those with the Lucifer effect (influential enough to take along others) crossing over to other parties. You must keep an eye on your stronghold with one eye and make inroads into opponent territory with the other eye. That is how the chameleon works. Its eyes are mounted in twin conical turrets and can move independently of each other, giving the chameleon the ability to see all round itself when seeking prey, and binocular vision in front when it is preparing to strike with its long, sticky tongue.

4.      Be Tactful. If you can poach from other parties people with the Lucifer effect, why not? Look, no one likes to make calls asking for money or support, but if that is what it takes to win, why not?  No one likes to knock on doors in a neighborhood where they don’t know anybody, and are pretty sure most of the people support their opponent but if you must do that in order to win, why not?  Learning how to draft press releases and deal with (social) media requires time and skill, but if that’s what will give you an additional vote, why not? You need to know when it’s time to cooperate, when it’s time to compete and when it’s time to boycott. Ask Dr. Kaunda what happened in 1996 when he convinced UNIP to boycott, when they should have competed.  All these require you to be alert to the factors at play and at stake. They are all potentially double-edged swords. That is where tact comes in. You have to be willing to step outside your comfort zone.

5.      The winning team. Names matter. Assemble for your party a credible team of men and women whose credentials are believable. A healthy combination of fresh blood and tested experience is always the best bet. Don’t swing the pendulum to wide on either side. You must appease, to the extent possible, the four nagging categories in Zambian politics: youth, women, veterans and tribe. You can also choose to ignore these and wait for the next election.

6.       Ignore the Nay-Sayers. If you want to run for office, you’re going to come across lots of people who tell you it can’t be done, and that you shouldn’t run.  Once you get into the race, you’ll hear that you’ll never be able to win.  If you win, you’ll hear people tell you how it doesn’t matter, because no one can change anything anyway. Tell them: hogwash! During your political career, you’ll meet lots of people who want to bring you down, usually because they are cynical, skeptical, and often jealous.  Steer clear of them and do your thing.  How many people actually thought that Michael Chilufya Sata would end up at plot 1 Independence Avenue or Barack Obama in the White House?  The list is endless. The point is, it doesn’t matter what other people think – what matters is what you think, and how hard you are willing to work.  Well, what are you waiting for?  Go win that election!