Opposition Parties too weak to oust PF from Power

Filed under: Politics,Special Comments |

Lungu and HH

By Justin Mupundu

The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU)’s recent report confirms my analysis that the governing PF will win the 2021 polls.

But EIU’s contradictory supposition that PF would lose the 2021 polls if the fragmented opposition parties formed a coalition or alliance is flawed.

However, since my analysis explained how PF would win the 2021 polls, then, I will only argue that even if the opposition formed an alliance against incumbent Edgar Lungu, they would still lose the polls.

Opposition political parties in Zambia are like croaking frogs in the stagnant water: Weak, tired and divided.

Opposition political parties’ coalition or alliance lamentably fails to work out mainly on the account of leaders’ greed for power, competing interests and mistrust thus making it a practically impossible venture in the Zambian politics.
So the probability of opposition parties forming an alliance is 1 percent out of 100 percent. But even if the opposition political parties successfully managed to form an alliance against PF, they will still lose to the PF.

The combined opposition political parties has often garnered over 57 percent of the vote against the incumbent‘s less than 48 percent since 2001.

However, the combined opposition, in 2016, garnered 49 percent of the vote against President Lungu‘s 50. 4 percent.

It’s worth noting that President Lungu is the second sitting Head of State after Frederick Chiluba to be elected as Republican President with over the majority 50 percent of the vote.

The second Republican President Chiluba scooped the 1991 polls with over 75 percent of the vote after beating his closest rival, the first Republican President, Dr Kenneth Kaunda, and was re-elected in 1996 with over 64 percent of the vote.

But his successor, the late third Republican President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa scooped the presidency
in 2001 and 2006 with about 30 percent 43 percent, respectively.

Both the fourth and fifth Republican Presidents Rupiah Banda and late Michael Sata won 2008 and 2011
polls with 42and 43 percent, respectively.

President Lungu enjoys a popularity rating of over 8 percent higher than all his predecessors except
Chiluba. All of them had faced strong fragmented opposition, but won the presidency with less than 43 percent of the vote.

In essence, the current crop of opposition political party’ leaders cannot unseat PF, at least for the next 13 years, mainly on account of PF’s over 89 percent performance rating. The PF’s performance rating is higher than Mwanawasa’s 84 percent recorded by Pangolin Consulting.

In the final analysis, opposition political parties do not pose a serious threat to the PF. But what poses a threat to the PF‘s stay in power is the voter apathy, and mores in government.

The higher numbers of Zambians who shun polls constitute the PF’s greatest enemy than the opposition alliance.

Similarly, public or civil servants who leak vital government information constitute another threat to the PF.

The author is a media consultant and political analyst


One Response to Opposition Parties too weak to oust PF from Power

  1. No Sir Mr. Mpundu
    They say there are 2 kinds of lies:- small lies, common lies and statistics. In 2016, the so called winning by “popular PF” president was full of irregularities; you can refer to Kanyama, Kalulushi and Lundazi and in a normal country that election should have been nullified and a fresh one called. Maybe you Mr. Mpundu are enjoying the $5 per gallon petrol as well as the taxes left right and center that the rest of us mere mortals are reeling under. Suffice to say, continue taking Zambians for granted and you will swallow your analysis one day. If you were real you could have spoken of the atmosphere in the Zambia of today where the opposition space has been decimated by the PF police, the weakened judiciary, ZNBC and the use of colonial-era laws like so called public order ACT.

    November 20, 2018 at 3:21 pm

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