Opinion: It is clear who is the winner of the January 20 election

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By David Mulenga
This year’s by election is a close contest betwee PF and UPND candidates. Those basing the possible outcome on 10 year historical voting pattern give the pf a wide lead while the pragmatists give Hakainde Hichilema a big leap into State House

Opinion polls
UPND’s HH has a road to State House paved with pebbles and roses. This election is for him to bungle it. If the recent opinion palls by many leading media houses is anything to go by, the PF would be worried that the ground beneath their strong holds has shifted quite dramatically. More so that these polls are a direct reflection of vote outcomes in urban areas where PF claims strong presence. These polls are done by voters in urban areas who have access to Television, smart phones and internet. The opinion poll results must worry the PF as there is a likelyhood that this will be reflected in the real vote on 20th January.

Unpaid farmers
This voting block arguably the biggest in Zambia might just tilt the 20 January polls to HH. It is likely that a good number of farmers in Eastern province and Central province might just vote for HH and ignore RB’s selfish personal call for Eastern farmers to vote for their tribesmate considering how PF has botched up agriculture.

Geophrey Bwalya Mwamba – GBM factor
GBM does not need to deliver Northern province to UPND. All he needs is to insure that the vote outcome from Northern is not tempered by PF. Unless the PF remove Nervus Mumba and Edith Nawakwi from the ballot paper, they are unlikely to realise their imaginary land slide.

The Katele Kalumba effect
Love him or loath him, he is held in high esteem in Luapula expecially Mununga, Chiengi and Kaputa. UPND will come out better in Luapula this year. As long as results from Luapula are well certified by Katele, UPND road to State House will still be paved by pebbles and roses.

The ah Moment
Please bare with me here. UPND has expanded its highly energised base. I see HH getting 80% in Central, 79% Southern, 94% in North Western, 97% in Western, 51% in Lusaka and 35% in Copperbelt. For PF to neutralise these margine, they have to pray for similar margines in Eastern, Northern and Luapula. Note that in this coming by election, it does not make sense to split Northern and Muchinga because combined voters registered is 674,000.
Any meaningful vote analysis should be based on 9 provinces. Anyone making assumptions for this election based on 10 provinces is mining fool’s gold.

It will be an uphill battles for lungu to achieve results posted by the great Sata. If Lungu is deceiving himself that he is greater than Sata then he may be forgiven. Comrade Lungu should not be deceived by crowds who come to his rallies to listen to his vision of less than 10 minutes. It has been argued by some pilitical pundits that these crowds are attracted by Mark2 and half dressed Congolese dancers. It is yet to be seen whether these people come to hear Lungu’s 6 minutes no vision speeches or get free entertainment.

The Rupiah Banda – RB trick
Trust me. RB negates and complicates Lungu’s campaign. Unless Willy Nsanda, Emmanuel Mwamba, Brian Hapunda and Harry Kalaba are damn snow balls, they are right now evaluating how Nevers Mumba hand picked and molded Muhabi Lungu into National Secretary of arguably the biggest opposition party in Zambia, MMD. No sooner had Mumba settled than Muhabi started having dark corner meetings with RB on how to remove Nevers Mumba from the ballot paper. Am sure Mwamba like many others in PF are saying, wait a minute. Can this Lungu guy with his RB and his Muhabi be trusted. A lot of genuine PF members are already questioning their conscience on whether to vote for PF and be dont kubebad.

Just in Eastern province, there is a revolt against treacherous RB. All MMD MPs are refusing to join Lungu on the campaign trial. RB’s team has resorted to physically beating up MMD councillors who refuse to back Lungu. RB might just fail to deliver Eastern by a very big margin because all his lwftenants have read through his treacherous plan. This might work to the advantage of UPND.

Time
Time is a resource and comodity that PF doesnt have now. Even if they hired 10 chopers, it would not help him because they dont have the human assets to load into those planes. Emmanuel Mwamba and Brian Hapunda cannot hold a political meeting.

Live Television debates
Edgar lost an opportunity to sell himself to the biggest political platform by arrogantly dodging the debates. Undecided voters are wondering what he is hiding. Like RB would quip, “ufisa chingi munyamata?”

Unpaid farmers
These will vote for any candidate but not a PF candidate.

It can be seen that Lungu’s route to State House is very narrow. His wish would be that the by-election be held by show of hands, with a lot of intermediation with violence from panga carrying PF cadres. However, all things point to having a secrete ballot election which is most likely going to work against the PF. The returning officer Judge Ireen Mambilima has affirmed that voting will be by secret ballot not show of hands.
We hope the desperate thugs will not elect to burn this country for selfish causes
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21 Responses to Opinion: It is clear who is the winner of the January 20 election

  1. There is so much talk about who ll win this election. How i wish we could keep silence and see for ourselves after 20/1/15. This is raising anxiety. I can only wish the candidates the best.

    Kaya
    January 8, 2015 at 6:00 pm
    Reply

    • Many prophets have equally added their voices to this. Eish

      Kaya
      January 8, 2015 at 6:02 pm
      Reply

  2. This is a wish of the writer wait for 20th January the will swallow his words. What is the main reason of changing? Not now this is still time for pf

    commander
    January 8, 2015 at 6:07 pm
    Reply

    • This is not time for PF. They have had their time of failing to pay farmers,failing to pay students their allowances, imposing a wage and employment freeze in hard economic times, borrowing with passion to spend in wrong activities, giving each other contracts unfairly, employing only their relatives and a lot other things. I don’t think any normal person would support such mischievous behaviour to continue.

      python
      January 8, 2015 at 6:44 pm
      Reply

    • It’s for anyone suitable but certainly not for PF this time around. They have messed up the wishes of most Zambians to deserve majority votes. The unrepentant lies will be humiliated this time

      Dexter
      January 9, 2015 at 8:15 am
      Reply

  3. Though much of the article is based on emotions other than numbers from surveys/ opinion polls, the article covers quite good points.

    PF don`t seem to have smart people to help them with smart analysis. They`re using mechanical thinking to predict their chances. For instance, its surprising that PF still thinks they`ll still get a landslide win-vote in Lusaka and Copperbelt. They can`t analyze how the dynamics have changed. Secondly, they`re relying so much on the tribal and regional vote. This likely to explode in their faces. Thirdly, PF have a narrow view of the locations that make up Lusaka and Copperbelt, all they think of is the urban townships, and not the peri-urban and rural areas of these regions. UPND ias very popular in peri-urban and rural areas of Lusaka and Copperbelt, and HH will only need about 30% – 40% to catch up with PF in Lusaka and Copperbelt.

    Blago
    January 8, 2015 at 7:06 pm
    Reply

  4. thats very true.we dont need pf any more.let the morons support pf.

    wazi
    January 8, 2015 at 7:08 pm
    Reply

  5. Analysis is wrong and biased toward HH. Its wrong in many respects. Eastern province is delivered completely to PF. True prophets are for Edgar. One false prophet from tongaland was for HH. Now this confirmation of HH being satanist also coming from the courts…Zambia is a christian nation. I think HH is finnished and out of the league.this one is for PF believe me you and no question about it.unpaid Farmers, katele kalumba, GBM won’t change nothing especially on this strong satanism case.

    Wisdom
    January 8, 2015 at 7:10 pm
    Reply

    • Zambia is only a Christian nation by word and not deeds mr wisdom.

      Judgement Day
      January 9, 2015 at 4:19 am
      Reply

    • I want to disagree on the notion of “Christian Nation” If Zambian voted on the basis of Christian Nation as declared by Fredrick Chiluba, General Miyanda would have done very well in elections because he was among the pioneers of this campaign. Sadly, even the so-called born again Christians do not vote on this basis.

      Tim
      January 9, 2015 at 11:29 am
      Reply

  6. Although much of it is based on emotions, the article raises some interesting opinions and quite a number of predictions and observations seem sensible.

    PF seem to banking their hopes so much on tribal and regional vote, hence, their thinking that Luapula, Northern, and Muchinga, and Eastern will be a landslide victory for Lungu.
    PF are also pinning their hopes on replication of the 2011 results in Lusaka and Copperbelt. They`re so blind to the fact that dynamics in Lusaka and Copperbelt have changed, and the odds don’t` seem to favor PF because of their failure to fulfil most of the promises, and their style of governance has not helped.

    Blago
    January 8, 2015 at 10:45 pm
    Reply

  7. Awe Yama , ba David Mulenga, namusosa,
    Nshikwete namashiwi, ni forward fye kuli ba flight HH, you have opened my eyes.

    John kabengele
    January 9, 2015 at 2:56 am
    Reply

  8. the goodness is it will not be a show of hands this time. And I love the thrill that comes with 20th January

    Hammer
    January 9, 2015 at 4:55 am
    Reply

  9. THIS THE TIME THE PF SHOULD JUST ACCEPT THERE DOWN FALL “THE RISE AND FALL OF PF 2011-2014”

    STAY SAFE
    January 9, 2015 at 7:27 am
    Reply

  10. Keep dreaming and you will only wake up to reality come 20th January 2014!

    Mutuwapafa
    January 9, 2015 at 7:59 am
    Reply

  11. I have started liking the way Zambians think now. Lie today and find it dificultuty to lie tommorow. This will make our leaders acountable to the pepople of Zambia. This is an eye opener to whoever is camapagning on false promissese.

    Chimbwi No Plan
    January 9, 2015 at 8:31 am
    Reply

  12. wise people do not need anyone to compaign to them,words are clear on the walls that PF’s down fall has just come,a new era has started too.
    MR H.H has proved beyond reasonable douts his rallies in EASTERN PROVINCE JUST GIVE A TRUE REFLECTION OF THE OPINION POLLS.WE ARE WELL AWARE ABOUT THE COTTON PRICES THAT DROPPED BY HALF AFTER PF GOT IN TO POWER FROM K3200 TO K1600,FARMERS HAVE HAD ENUF OF THERE SUFERING WERE UPTO NOW SOME HAVE NOT GOT THEIR MONEY FROM THE SO CALLED FRA.STUDENTS AT UNZA,CBU AND MANY HIGH INSTUTION OF LEARNING,THE FIRING OF NURSE AND ONLY TO BE REINSTATED AT THE BYELECTION TIME,THE RECENTLY INCREASED RETIREMENT AGE TO 65 YRS SO THAT YOUTHS NEVER GET JOBS FOR THE NEXT 10YRS,WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT FREEZE,PERSONAL PENSION TO BE BUDGETAD BY GOVNMENT BY GIVING ONLY 40% FOR FEAR OF MISUSING BUT WHO BUDGETS FOR GRATUITE AFTER FIVE YRS OF BEING A MINISTER.THUS THE DEVLOPMNT PF CAN BOaST ABOUT, now if u are civil servant have the reason to vote in pf.for kaponyaz i understand because their future is deem and need wat to eat now forgetting tomorrow,even if they know too well that they have not got the jobs they were promised ,civilservants have not had their payrise,extra duty and double class allowances for teachers are no were to mentioned.the removal of fuel and agricultural subsdies is good because trasport has gone up,mealie meal and cement are very cheap in pfs time ever in the history of the country,embracing of RBs coruuption charges is good for pfs development because they are fighting corruption.dora siliya is now clean of corruption about radar at the airport.thus development for pf.

    so if ure voting vote wisely.as for me mr H.H YOURE THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR ZAMBIA.

    JAN VAN
    January 9, 2015 at 12:00 pm
    Reply

  13. A WISE MAN MAKES A MISTAKE ONCE AVOIDS IT NEXT TIME BUT FOOLS AND FAILURES ENJOY MAKING MISTAKES EVERYDAY, BECAUSE POVERTY CONTROLS THEM.CIVIL SERVANTS,NURSES,FARMERS AND WORKERS IN THE MINE AVOID THE MISTAKE YOU MADE IN 2O11.IF U WANT TO SEE A TURN ARROUND IN WHAT YOU ARE DOING OR ELSE POVERTY WILL BE FOLLOWING YOU.IF POLITICIANS ARE ALL FAILURES THEN LETS TRY NEW FAILURES OF H.H. THAN WHAT WE HAVE WITNESSED.

    JAN VAN
    January 9, 2015 at 12:13 pm
    Reply

  14. The analysis is mind touching. I want to agree with the writer. PF are banking on Sata’s popularity and trasnporting peoples from far places to attend their rallies. Today tens of buses ferried people from Lusaka to Kafue so that they beef up the rally. I wonder whom they are fooling.

    Mulenga Mutale
    January 9, 2015 at 2:23 pm
    Reply

    • @ JAN VAN & MULENGA MUTALE,
      I think gents you have a point. I for one, even in my dream, I would be sick to realise that I place my vote on PF again. Regardless of the relationship i share with the PF candidate, objectivity in national affairs must take precedence. We need to rise above bode and think critically about our future and that of our children as youths. A tribal orientation will not serve this country nor ourselves. Let’s look at the wisdom, capability, skill and experience that these candidates possess. For now, let’s ignore the Panga Boys on the street they ll join HH after seeing the difference!

      kalijo
      January 9, 2015 at 5:33 pm
      Reply

  15. The late president worked very hard when campaigning and the only person who looks like he has emulated Sata’s campaign methods is Hakainde Hichilema. surely the results will not be similar to those of 2011. As an example, copperbelt has seen an increased presence of UPND, and a similar situation has gained shape in most rural areas coz of failure by the government to pay farmers. This will surely impact on the performance of the PF

    Reuben
    January 11, 2015 at 4:46 am
    Reply

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