Opinion: It is clear who is the winner of the January 20 election
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By David Mulenga
This year’s by election is a close contest betwee PF and UPND candidates. Those basing the possible outcome on 10 year historical voting pattern give the pf a wide lead while the pragmatists give Hakainde Hichilema a big leap into State House
Opinion polls
UPND’s HH has a road to State House paved with pebbles and roses. This election is for him to bungle it. If the recent opinion palls by many leading media houses is anything to go by, the PF would be worried that the ground beneath their strong holds has shifted quite dramatically. More so that these polls are a direct reflection of vote outcomes in urban areas where PF claims strong presence. These polls are done by voters in urban areas who have access to Television, smart phones and internet. The opinion poll results must worry the PF as there is a likelyhood that this will be reflected in the real vote on 20th January.
Unpaid farmers
This voting block arguably the biggest in Zambia might just tilt the 20 January polls to HH. It is likely that a good number of farmers in Eastern province and Central province might just vote for HH and ignore RB’s selfish personal call for Eastern farmers to vote for their tribesmate considering how PF has botched up agriculture.
Geophrey Bwalya Mwamba – GBM factor
GBM does not need to deliver Northern province to UPND. All he needs is to insure that the vote outcome from Northern is not tempered by PF. Unless the PF remove Nervus Mumba and Edith Nawakwi from the ballot paper, they are unlikely to realise their imaginary land slide.
The Katele Kalumba effect
Love him or loath him, he is held in high esteem in Luapula expecially Mununga, Chiengi and Kaputa. UPND will come out better in Luapula this year. As long as results from Luapula are well certified by Katele, UPND road to State House will still be paved by pebbles and roses.
The ah Moment
Please bare with me here. UPND has expanded its highly energised base. I see HH getting 80% in Central, 79% Southern, 94% in North Western, 97% in Western, 51% in Lusaka and 35% in Copperbelt. For PF to neutralise these margine, they have to pray for similar margines in Eastern, Northern and Luapula. Note that in this coming by election, it does not make sense to split Northern and Muchinga because combined voters registered is 674,000.
Any meaningful vote analysis should be based on 9 provinces. Anyone making assumptions for this election based on 10 provinces is mining fool’s gold.
It will be an uphill battles for lungu to achieve results posted by the great Sata. If Lungu is deceiving himself that he is greater than Sata then he may be forgiven. Comrade Lungu should not be deceived by crowds who come to his rallies to listen to his vision of less than 10 minutes. It has been argued by some pilitical pundits that these crowds are attracted by Mark2 and half dressed Congolese dancers. It is yet to be seen whether these people come to hear Lungu’s 6 minutes no vision speeches or get free entertainment.
The Rupiah Banda – RB trick
Trust me. RB negates and complicates Lungu’s campaign. Unless Willy Nsanda, Emmanuel Mwamba, Brian Hapunda and Harry Kalaba are damn snow balls, they are right now evaluating how Nevers Mumba hand picked and molded Muhabi Lungu into National Secretary of arguably the biggest opposition party in Zambia, MMD. No sooner had Mumba settled than Muhabi started having dark corner meetings with RB on how to remove Nevers Mumba from the ballot paper. Am sure Mwamba like many others in PF are saying, wait a minute. Can this Lungu guy with his RB and his Muhabi be trusted. A lot of genuine PF members are already questioning their conscience on whether to vote for PF and be dont kubebad.
Just in Eastern province, there is a revolt against treacherous RB. All MMD MPs are refusing to join Lungu on the campaign trial. RB’s team has resorted to physically beating up MMD councillors who refuse to back Lungu. RB might just fail to deliver Eastern by a very big margin because all his lwftenants have read through his treacherous plan. This might work to the advantage of UPND.
Time
Time is a resource and comodity that PF doesnt have now. Even if they hired 10 chopers, it would not help him because they dont have the human assets to load into those planes. Emmanuel Mwamba and Brian Hapunda cannot hold a political meeting.
Live Television debates
Edgar lost an opportunity to sell himself to the biggest political platform by arrogantly dodging the debates. Undecided voters are wondering what he is hiding. Like RB would quip, “ufisa chingi munyamata?”
Unpaid farmers
These will vote for any candidate but not a PF candidate.
It can be seen that Lungu’s route to State House is very narrow. His wish would be that the by-election be held by show of hands, with a lot of intermediation with violence from panga carrying PF cadres. However, all things point to having a secrete ballot election which is most likely going to work against the PF. The returning officer Judge Ireen Mambilima has affirmed that voting will be by secret ballot not show of hands.
Opinion polls
UPND’s HH has a road to State House paved with pebbles and roses. This election is for him to bungle it. If the recent opinion palls by many leading media houses is anything to go by, the PF would be worried that the ground beneath their strong holds has shifted quite dramatically. More so that these polls are a direct reflection of vote outcomes in urban areas where PF claims strong presence. These polls are done by voters in urban areas who have access to Television, smart phones and internet. The opinion poll results must worry the PF as there is a likelyhood that this will be reflected in the real vote on 20th January.
Unpaid farmers
This voting block arguably the biggest in Zambia might just tilt the 20 January polls to HH. It is likely that a good number of farmers in Eastern province and Central province might just vote for HH and ignore RB’s selfish personal call for Eastern farmers to vote for their tribesmate considering how PF has botched up agriculture.
Geophrey Bwalya Mwamba – GBM factor
GBM does not need to deliver Northern province to UPND. All he needs is to insure that the vote outcome from Northern is not tempered by PF. Unless the PF remove Nervus Mumba and Edith Nawakwi from the ballot paper, they are unlikely to realise their imaginary land slide.
The Katele Kalumba effect
Love him or loath him, he is held in high esteem in Luapula expecially Mununga, Chiengi and Kaputa. UPND will come out better in Luapula this year. As long as results from Luapula are well certified by Katele, UPND road to State House will still be paved by pebbles and roses.
The ah Moment
Please bare with me here. UPND has expanded its highly energised base. I see HH getting 80% in Central, 79% Southern, 94% in North Western, 97% in Western, 51% in Lusaka and 35% in Copperbelt. For PF to neutralise these margine, they have to pray for similar margines in Eastern, Northern and Luapula. Note that in this coming by election, it does not make sense to split Northern and Muchinga because combined voters registered is 674,000.
Any meaningful vote analysis should be based on 9 provinces. Anyone making assumptions for this election based on 10 provinces is mining fool’s gold.
It will be an uphill battles for lungu to achieve results posted by the great Sata. If Lungu is deceiving himself that he is greater than Sata then he may be forgiven. Comrade Lungu should not be deceived by crowds who come to his rallies to listen to his vision of less than 10 minutes. It has been argued by some pilitical pundits that these crowds are attracted by Mark2 and half dressed Congolese dancers. It is yet to be seen whether these people come to hear Lungu’s 6 minutes no vision speeches or get free entertainment.
The Rupiah Banda – RB trick
Trust me. RB negates and complicates Lungu’s campaign. Unless Willy Nsanda, Emmanuel Mwamba, Brian Hapunda and Harry Kalaba are damn snow balls, they are right now evaluating how Nevers Mumba hand picked and molded Muhabi Lungu into National Secretary of arguably the biggest opposition party in Zambia, MMD. No sooner had Mumba settled than Muhabi started having dark corner meetings with RB on how to remove Nevers Mumba from the ballot paper. Am sure Mwamba like many others in PF are saying, wait a minute. Can this Lungu guy with his RB and his Muhabi be trusted. A lot of genuine PF members are already questioning their conscience on whether to vote for PF and be dont kubebad.
Just in Eastern province, there is a revolt against treacherous RB. All MMD MPs are refusing to join Lungu on the campaign trial. RB’s team has resorted to physically beating up MMD councillors who refuse to back Lungu. RB might just fail to deliver Eastern by a very big margin because all his lwftenants have read through his treacherous plan. This might work to the advantage of UPND.
Time
Time is a resource and comodity that PF doesnt have now. Even if they hired 10 chopers, it would not help him because they dont have the human assets to load into those planes. Emmanuel Mwamba and Brian Hapunda cannot hold a political meeting.
Live Television debates
Edgar lost an opportunity to sell himself to the biggest political platform by arrogantly dodging the debates. Undecided voters are wondering what he is hiding. Like RB would quip, “ufisa chingi munyamata?”
Unpaid farmers
These will vote for any candidate but not a PF candidate.
It can be seen that Lungu’s route to State House is very narrow. His wish would be that the by-election be held by show of hands, with a lot of intermediation with violence from panga carrying PF cadres. However, all things point to having a secrete ballot election which is most likely going to work against the PF. The returning officer Judge Ireen Mambilima has affirmed that voting will be by secret ballot not show of hands.
We hope the desperate thugs will not elect to burn this country for selfish causes
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