Only 29 days to go: Who takes it?

The past elections show an increase in voter turnout from 53.65% in 2011 to 57.73% in 2016.

The 2015 Presidential bye election only managed a partly 32.36% turnout due to voter fatigue.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia is sitting on 7,023,499 registered voters and past trends show that our turn out this year is projected around 60%±.

Given the above the scenario, it is expected that only 4,214,099 voters will go to the booth putting 50 + 1 at 2,000,000 plus 1 votes.

A look at the 2016 Presidential results show a narrow 100,530 difference BETWEEN President Edgar Lungu of the PF and Hakainde Hichilema of the UPND. 2016 results were as follows:

LUNGU 1,860,877
Hichilema 1,760,347

The provincial support base for the UPND (Southern, Western, North Western Provinces) recorded less numbers of voters in 2021 as compared to the 2016 register mainly due to deceased voters.

In 2016, only Mazabuka and Livingstone had a 60% turnout while the rest of the constituencies in Southern Province ranged between 71 – 81%.

The above explains why UPND has not bothered so much to campaign in Southern Province as they have mopped 70 -80% of their voters in 2016 and likely to have minimal increase from their powerbase hence their focus in the PF bedroom looking to get extra numbers.

Clearly, PF has a big reserve of fatigued voters and those who go to mabala, far from home during elections in Northern, Luapula and Muchinga and see no reason to come out or go back home to vote as evidenced by the low voter turnout in the Northen Muchinga and Luapula circuit.

The swing Provinces have no doubt disappointed us with a below 60% turnout;

Muchinga between 52 – 61%
Luapula between 39 – 65%
Northern between 48 – 64%

PF has an upper hand in this election for as long as it has the industry to get 80 – 90% percent of the voters in their “supposedly” stronghold to vote.

The margin will be narrow yet again but PF will get 2,000,000 votes plus 1 and retain the Presidency.

After the August 12th elections, the Socialist Party is posed to take over from UPND as the biggest opposition in Zambia.

The battle is for the 2,000,000 mark.

By Christopher Shakafuswa