Dialogue between Lungu and HH will yield nothing – Economic Intelligence Unit

Filed under: Breaking News,Politics |

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has observed that the Commonwealth-brokered talks between President Edgar Lungu and opposition UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema are likely to be unsuccessful due to lack of common ground over the 2016 presidential elections.

According to the EIU report, Hichilema’s desire to overturn the 2016 election results which he claims were fraudulent adds to the unusual tension in the country.

And the report says Zambia’s political stability from 2018 to 2022 was unpredictable.

“Zambia will face substantial threats to political stability in 2018-22. Much of this stems from what is for Zambia an unusual degree of tension under the presidency of Edgar Lungu. The treason charges against Hakainde Hichilema, leader of the UPND have only been dropped under a nolle prosequi, which means that the prosecution will proceed no further but that he can be re arraigned at any time.

“Mr Hichilema has also reiterated his commitment to overturning the results of the 2016 general election which he claims was fraudulent, even though these claims are the most likely reason why he was charged with treason in the first place. The Commonwealth has brokered talks between Mr Hichilema and Mr Lungu but in the absence of any common ground over the 2016 election, these talks are unlikely to succeed,” the report read.

The report also notes that the 2021 election time would be yet another volatile period for the country due to President Lungu’s unwillingness to leave office.

“The 2021 election season will be another volatile period, during which the government will look to narrow the political space aggressively. Extra security powers should help to bolster overall stability, but they will nonetheless reinforce widespread perceptions that Zambia is staggering into autocracy, keeping tensions very high throughout the forecast period and resulting in frequent low-level clashes and violence. Besides relations with the opposition, intra-governmental divisions will keep policy unpredictable, with a vocal conservative faction of the ruling Patriotic Front having long been skeptical of the president and his choice of cabinet. To cement his position, Mr Lungu is likely to enact a purge against this caucus, which will prove a distraction to the functioning of government while it lasts, but later on it should work to avoid internal instability. For example, in the run up to the 2020 PF presidential nomination,” the report reads.

It has further projected a victory for President Lungu in the 2021 elections if the Connstitutional Court deemed him eligible to stand again.

“The next presidential and legislative elections are due in August 2021. The most recent presidential and legislative polls, held in August 2016, were marred by violence primarily between security forces and opposition supporters as well as intimidation of media outlets and voices critical of the government. The violence and intimidation have injured Zambia’s image as one of Africa’s stronger democracies. Assuming that Mr Lungu is deemed eligible to stand again in 2021, and with the odds stacked against the opposition in a repressive environment, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects him to win a second full term as president.”

On the political temperature in the country, the report says the country was likely to experience more political unrest should the courts rule that President Lungu is eligible to stand in 2021.

“Emergency security powers have been dropped, which will allow for calm over the short term despite low-level anti-government protests over corruption, which will be a frequent phenomenon. Over the longer run there are several potential flash points that stand to stir more serious unrest and provide justification for the reimposition or extension of emergency powers. Such unrest is likely to be triggered, for example, if the judiciary were to deem Mr Lungu eligible to stand for another term in office in 2021 something the opposition roundly rejects,” read the EIU report.


4 Responses to Dialogue between Lungu and HH will yield nothing – Economic Intelligence Unit

  1. I just wonder weather there are any problems between the two guys all what I can see are their differences in the way they are politicking .
    Any one paying attention to this really has nothing more important to attend to, he has no job to do so he is creating one for himself .

    November 29, 2017 at 11:24 am

  2. What some lazy people do not know is that PF will not be UPND and vice versa why waste time on dead issues .
    As long as these boys are in politics that is their political language you would surprised that they exchange notes in privacy.
    Really they are good friends while they make you believe they are enemies .

    November 29, 2017 at 11:30 am

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    November 29, 2017 at 3:52 pm

  4. This report has an iota of truth on violence and on how some PF members perceive their party President. On Hichilema, the writers have missed it completely. it shows lack of knowledge by the writers on the political difference between MR. Hichilema and Mr. Lungu.In your mind you seem to doubt that Mr. Hichilema won the last two elections. For example, you think that if the court ruling allows Mr. Lungu to stand, he will win a second term for himself.Is the writer not aware that if a vacancy exists due to death, whoever is voted to power does his first term no matter the period? Mr. Sata passed on. He did not leave the Presidency due to poor helth. Inthis case no voting is needed then the person who assums the Presidency would claim that he is finishing another person’s term. This is not the case with Mr. Lungu please. Some times courts are abused.
    Has the writer added all the votes recorded on the genuine GN 12 forms and discovered that Mr. Lungu won the 2016 election? Zambia has two GN 12 forms. The genuine ones held by Mr. Hichilema and the fake ones presented to ECZ by the the PF thieves. Is the writer aware that the fake GN 12 forms filled by The PF during the period of counting which helped the PF win the election is one of the main contentions for the difference between the two? These fake forms have been presented in court on petitions by a councilor in chingola who won the case and in courts for the Mps, they won the cases. HH too, wants his case heard and he is sure to show that he won. He refuses to endorse stealing of votes which is a sin. The PF know why they are reluctant to have his case heard. Now we know that 14 days did not elapse after all. If people voted today with no rigging HH would win once again.

    kanwa kahosha
    November 30, 2017 at 1:33 pm

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Start: 2019-07-01 End: 2019-07-31