2016 elections: Where it will be won and lost

By Joe Mwansa Lombe Kaluba

It is said that politics and democracy are all about numbers. However, as much as I agree with this notion I would like to contend that the two elements are more about strategy than the numerical factor. My notion is based on the idea that without a masterpiece of a strategy, you have to forget about ever having the numbers. Although this is debatable, I contend that one of the reasons people or parties lose elections is not because they are unlucky or that people don’t want them; it is because the winners may sometimes out class the losers.

In politics, a party ought to have a plan that blends the following together; skills of members, experience, strength of your party, shared objective, shared motive and understanding of your weaknesses and strengths, among other things. The most cardinal thing to note is that all political parties should hope they outclass their opponents. In this regard I want to outline areas where I feel major political parties might win or lose it the upcoming elections. Since this is a general election the order will be according to the strength of parties in Parliament as per the last general elections (2011). I will focus on the top three parties.

Patriotic Front(PF)

In my opinion, I think PF has the advantage, not because they are in government but because people are able to judge them on their performance in the last five years. During their campaigns, they will point to the massive infrastructure they have rolled out in the past five years; schools, clinics, hospitals, roads, universities including office blocks, housing units as well as the ongoing Presidential Solar Hammer Mill project. PF will also claim that these projects have provided employment to most Zambians in respect to lecturers, teachers, nurses, doctors and other such jobs in the health sector.

The signing of the constitutional bill is another item that people will refer to. In the past five years, local and international investment (investors) have also come on the scene and to some extent contributed to the creation of job posts for some Zambians. In this regard I think PF will receive a lot of votes from the rural areas and the majority of urban constituencies.

Most parties who have lost power to the opposition do that because of taking things for granted. In the case of PF, I think if they lose focus between now and August they might lose the elections. The other thing is that although some of the natural elements and international economic issues are not influenced by them, I believe that some people might not give them their vote due to this fact. other issues that might work against the PF are; strength of the Kwacha, loadshedding, fuel, among others.

Do away with people causing confusion-Forget about founding members or new member issues. In as much as I feel that everyone is important, it is a whole different case when the issue at hand involves serving people. Therefore, it should not matter whether one is a founding or new member. what’s important is the capability of the party members to efficiently and effectively run the governement whilst leaving their internal party matters to their secretariat.

Movement for Multiparty Democracy(MMD)

People are saying the MMD is dead. I don’t think so. You can never underestimate a party that went out of power less than five years ago. I have talked to people in both rural and urban constituencies and it has been revealed that MMD is still remembered as a party that took development to some parties of Zambia. Some roads, schools, hospitals and upgrading of colleges was also done during the MMD time. Just like PF, MMD too will have things to point at as evidence of what they are capable of doing. As it stands only UNIP (27 years) has more experience running government compared to MMD’s twenty years.  I think MMD is still in the game, however, it will depend on how they sell themselves between now and August.

-Where it will be lost–

People still view MMD as a divided party after what happened last year before the Presidential by Elections. People are still asking questions about whether MPs who support either UPND and PF are still MMD or not. It is also important to note that rather than claiming to have experiences in running government, people deserve to know whether the party is still focusing on its old manifesto or if it has a new one, and if all members of the party are in support of that manifesto or not.

The MMD leadership should put their big foot on the ground and sort out their differences. There was a time when all party leaders were known; people knew who the ward, district, provincial and national leaders were. If structures are strong, you don’t need the party president to go and do party mobilisation at district level.

United Party for National Development(UPND)

Apart from the Forum for Democracy and Development(FDD), UPND is the only untested party among the opposition parties with a good number of MPS in Parliament. They may claim that they have new ideas which UNIP, MMD and PF don’t have. UPND may also argue that they have different people with different skills which will be cardinal in running government. Apart from that I think that they will be riding high on morale and confidence based on their performance during last year’s by elections.

Regardless of their performance in last year’s Presidential by elections, I think UPND does not have national support as they claim to have. Remember just like PF some of their votes come forth because of the support from MMD MPs. Just as in my previous allusions pertaining to the MMD, I think that the UPND is only likely to produce not more than eight leaders since it is a party of very few people. I also think that UPND members are too emotional for nothing, something that might cost them a lot of votes as people, especially the undecided will think they can not run a government.

UPND claims that it has set up a number of visible structures but the question still remains, where? People should know who is in the ward, constituency, district or provincial leadership. Secondly, UPND members should stop focusing only on selling individuals but the party. Know your manifesto more than you know the CV or riches of your leaders. People want to know what your party will do and not what your candidates studied or which conference your leaders spoke at. I can tell you without a doubt that my grandparents don’t care about that.

The party that does its homework is winning this August’s elections. Although not ruling out some political parties, I think the so called smaller parties might aid or spoil the chances of some candidates. I think August will bring out a lot of issues which will go in our history books. They will be a lot of political casualties and new comers, however what will be more interesting will be peoples reactions after the elections.

Have a great week!