Economic Intelligence Unit predicts victory for HH

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HH waves at supporters

HH waves at supporters

The respected Economic Intelligence Unit has predicted that Hakainde Hichilema of the UPND will win the August 2016 general elections.
In its April 2016 Forecast Report just published on its website, the EIU states that although the UPND will win, there will be little change in national economic policies as well as the social conditions of the people.

HH with Scott, Scott's wife and Sampa

HH with Scott, Scott’s wife and Sampa

The EIU argues that the defection from the PF by its former Vice President Guy Scott “probably motivated more by his personal animosity towards President Edgar Lungu than by his disappointment with the party and that of Michael Sata’s nephew Miles Sampa, will help UPND win the elections.

Lungu with Nevers

Lungu with Nevers

The report states that the PF “is likely to be unseated without backing from more than Mr [Nevers] Mumba’s faction within the MMD. It is clear that the allegiances of the various MMD factions are fluid, a situation which in the coming months will see a lot of “horse-trading to secure electoral pacts.”

“The authorities’ official policy agenda, which is unlikely to change drastically in the event of a UPND election win, will be to reduce inflation, bring down the fiscal deficit, boost mining production, develop infrastructure (particularly power and transport) to encourage the diversification of the economy, and support local business and employment.”

The report further says that both the PF and the UPND have inconsistent economic policies where “pro-business rhetoric” is mixed with “promises of more populist policies.”

This will cause the investors to continue to be wary about economic “policy uncertainty” irrespective of the party that wins the August 11 elections. “Uncertainty and confusion created by inconsistent government policy towards mining firms will weigh on investment, “the EIU says.

The Report states that the elections will be tightly fought leading to some stalemate because neither Mr Lungu nor Mr Hichilema enjoys the backing of a clear majority of voters.

“Because of the constitutional requirement that a candidate would secure the presidency only after the 50 per cent plus one vote, the MMD “could emerge as the kingmaker despite its internal rifts” although the MMD support among the voters is unclear.”

The EIU fears that there could be sporadic violence before and after the elections whose outcome would be determined by a weakening economy that is undermining the PF’s support among the voters.

It says the weak economy is manifested by job losses in the mines, deterioration of living standards of the majority of the people, high inflation, power shortages and below average economic activity.

However, after August, political stability will improve even though “no party is likely to secure an outright legislative majority,” a prospect that would substantially “slow down policy-making” up to 2020.

The EIU says, “We expect Mr Hichilema to be victorious in August. Nevertheless, although we expect the UPND to win the most seats, no party is likely to win an outright legislative majority.

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9 Responses to Economic Intelligence Unit predicts victory for HH

  1. Clearly this report is speculative, and kabimba was right- the upnd is fighting for self preservation and is offering nothing new. peoples expectations form government are very high. PF OR UPND must tell us a convincing plan that they will implement to improve the wellbeing of zambians.

    Sata and his PF lied and said “free education & healthy facilities, THAT mealie meal will be less than K35- NOW its k100” UPND is repeating these lies.

    Learn from FTJ’S politics; put up a very good team of experts in cabinet/government regardless of where they come from, then the economy will tick; NOT THE BULLSHIT WE HEAR

    ngonibull
    April 14, 2016 at 11:59 am
    Reply

  2. ZE I like the new face of you website. Make the eye blue as well. It feels fine and organised.

    Maliongo
    April 14, 2016 at 12:31 pm
    Reply

  3. I think you are right Ngonibull. They should not to tell us what they will be free education, Job creation and many more. Let the UPND come out in open tell the Zambian people what strategies are they will implement so that these promises are fulfilled.UPND must not cheat that the they will free education they must learn to be open.The Zambian’s economic situation cant allow such things can happen.

    kaka
    April 14, 2016 at 12:48 pm
    Reply

  4. These are the same institutions that predicted HH would win the January 2015 Presidential election.They are back and typical of them they have come out to mislead UPND and HH in particular.What political influence has Guy Scot or Miles Sampa that would effectively make UPND win?

    Be that as it may,let the best party carry the day on 11th August,2016.Atleast my household has 12 votes for a deserving party!!!

    Be Nice to People
    April 14, 2016 at 1:30 pm
    Reply

  5. Michael Sata’s nephew Miles Sampa, Guy Scott and GBM’s presence in UPND is a very crucial factor which give UPND needed leverage to Win August 11 elections. Nawakwi and Mumba are gold diggers.

    M'phinganjira
    April 14, 2016 at 2:00 pm
    Reply

  6. many times u and me predicted who to win the election but the truth in people hearts. one day this HH u laugh one will be leader, call him names,u never know maybe.

    emmans kayos
    April 14, 2016 at 3:12 pm
    Reply

  7. Ndelolesha Fye. Good luck Zambia, Good LUCK HH

    musonda mwaume
    April 14, 2016 at 4:48 pm
    Reply

  8. How accurate is this report? Did EIU interview the people / voters in all the provinces to come up with this report?

    Pat Pat
    April 14, 2016 at 7:21 pm
    Reply

  9. God, Give Us HH as Our Zambian President This Year.

    Jata Noiluma
    April 15, 2016 at 4:57 pm
    Reply

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